Cardinals @ Pirates

The read

• Pallante's actually outpitching Jared Jones right now (3.57 ERA, 1.24 WHIP vs 4.17 and 1.19) and St. Louis is still getting plus money on the road — that gap is a live dog, not a name-value mirage
• Jones is a legit arm back from elbow surgery but Pallante's been the steadier workhorse all year, better ERA on a full season's innings is the actual signal here
• Pirates get the extra cushion at home and Jones has more swing-and-miss stuff, so this isn't a blowout mismatch — just a coin flip priced 10 points too generous toward Pittsburgh