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Small sample: 84 decided picks. A 48.8% win rate is consistent with a true rate anywhere from 38% to 59%. Treat every breakdown below as directional, not proven.
n = 84 decided · win rate 48.8% · 95% CI 38%–59%
Bankroll
$19.57
+$9.57 on a $10.00 start
Record
41-43-2
86 graded
Win rate
48.8%
41 of 84 decided
Return
+11.4%
on $84.00 wagered
Bankroll, ticket by ticket
Peak
$24.97
Sep 19, 2026
Max drawdown
$6.10
27.9% · low $15.76 on Apr 6
Current streak
W1
Pushes and voids don't count
Longest
W6 · L6
Win / loss streaks
Last 28 results
Current W1 · Longest W 6 · L 6
| Sport | W-L-P | Win% | ROI | P/L | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | 20-15-1 | 57.1% | +18.7% | +$6.56 | 36 |
| NBA | 8-7-0 | 53.3% | +49.5% | +$7.43 | 15 |
| NFL | 5-5-1 | 50.0% | -0.8% | -$0.08 | 11 |
| NCAAF | 2-4-0 | 33.3% | -16.0% | -$0.96 | 6 |
| NHL | 2-4-0 | 33.3% | -33.7% | -$2.02 | 6 |
| NCAAB | 1-5-0 | 16.7% | -65.8% | -$3.95 | 6 |
| GOLF | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | +71.8% | +$3.59 | 5 |
| F1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% | -$1.00 | 1 |
| Bet type | W-L-P | Win% | ROI | P/L | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | 21-20-1 | 51.2% | +6.1% | +$2.51 | 42 |
| Spread | 15-8-1 | 65.2% | +33.2% | +$7.64 | 24 |
| Parlay | 4-12-0 | 25.0% | +8.1% | +$1.29 | 16 |
| Over/Under | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | -29.0% | -$0.87 | 3 |
| Player Prop | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% | -$1.00 | 1 |
Does a higher confidence rating actually win more often?
| Confidence | W-L-P | Win% | ROI | P/L | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2/5 Low | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% | -$1.00 | 1 |
| 3/5 Medium | 22-23-1 | 48.9% | +9.1% | +$4.11 | 46 |
| 4/5 High | 19-18-1 | 51.4% | +20.2% | +$7.46 | 38 |
| 5/5 Max | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% | -$1.00 | 1 |
| Model | W-L-P | Win% | ROI | P/L | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opus 4.6 | 22-26-1 | 45.8% | +16.6% | +$7.99 | 49 |
| Sonnet 5 | 7-5-1 | 58.3% | +17.3% | +$2.08 | 13 |
| Opus 5 | 5-6-0 | 45.5% | -8.5% | -$0.94 | 11 |
| Opus 5.5 | 5-6-0 | 45.5% | -12.0% | -$1.32 | 11 |
| Fable 5.1 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | +88.0% | +$1.76 | 2 |
| Risk band | W-L-P | Win% | ROI | P/L | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Core | 29-21-2 | 58.0% | +9.4% | +$4.71 | 52 |
| Value | 7-5-0 | 58.3% | +53.5% | +$6.42 | 12 |
| Swing | 5-17-0 | 22.7% | -7.1% | -$1.56 | 22 |
| Tier | W-L-P | Win% | ROI | P/L | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB Pitcher Mismatch | 17-9-1 | 65.4% | +23.3% | +$6.06 | 27 |
| Multi-Game Parlay | 1-7-0 | 12.5% | -54.9% | -$4.39 | 8 |
| Other | 3-4-0 | 42.9% | -0.1% | -$0.01 | 7 |
| Value Underdog | 2-5-0 | 28.6% | -37.9% | -$2.65 | 7 |
| Correlated SGP | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | +128.0% | +$7.68 | 6 |
| NBA Back-to-Back Fade | 5-1-0 | 83.3% | +60.3% | +$3.62 | 6 |
| Value Spread | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | -23.2% | -$1.16 | 5 |
| Golf Course Fit | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | +80.3% | +$2.41 | 3 |
| Longshot Value | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | +5.0% | +$0.15 | 3 |
| NFL Key Number | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | -7.5% | -$0.15 | 3 |
| MLB Run Line | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | +157.0% | +$3.14 | 2 |
| NFL Home Dog | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | -1.0% | -$0.02 | 2 |
| CFB Home Dog | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | -5.5% | -$0.11 | 2 |
| Swing Parlay | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% | -$2.00 | 2 |
| Forced Filler | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% | -$1.00 | 1 |
| Value Total | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% | -$1.00 | 1 |
| Yolo Send | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% | -$1.00 | 1 |
| Month | W-L-P | Win% | ROI | P/L | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2026 | 10-9-0 | 52.6% | +57.2% | +$10.87 | 19 |
| Apr 2026 | 12-17-1 | 41.4% | -9.9% | -$2.88 | 30 |
| Sep 2026 | 19-17-1 | 52.8% | +4.4% | +$1.58 | 37 |
16 parlays
DraftKings profit boosts
By the odds taken
84 decided tickets