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Moderate sample: 155 decided picks. The 95% interval on the win rate is 41% to 57%; sport- and tier-level splits are still thin.
n = 155 decided · win rate 49.0% · 95% CI 41%–57%
Bankroll
$18.26
+$8.26 on a $10.00 start
Record
76-79-6
161 graded
Win rate
49.0%
76 of 155 decided
Return
+5.3%
on $155.00 wagered
Bankroll, ticket by ticket
Peak
$28.40
Oct 4, 2026
Max drawdown
$10.27
36.2% · low $18.13 on Oct 29
Current streak
L1
Pushes and voids don't count
Longest
W6 · L6
Win / loss streaks
Last 28 results
Current L1 · Longest W 6 · L 6
| Sport | W-L-P | Win% | ROI | P/L | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | 25-19-1 | 56.8% | +16.6% | +$7.31 | 45 |
| NFL | 16-17-2 | 48.5% | -8.2% | -$2.71 | 35 |
| NCAAF | 16-13-3 | 55.2% | +15.4% | +$4.47 | 32 |
| NBA | 11-10-0 | 52.4% | +34.4% | +$7.22 | 21 |
| NHL | 4-12-0 | 25.0% | -41.7% | -$6.67 | 16 |
| NCAAB | 1-5-0 | 16.7% | -65.8% | -$3.95 | 6 |
| GOLF | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | +71.8% | +$3.59 | 5 |
| F1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% | -$1.00 | 1 |
| Bet type | W-L-P | Win% | ROI | P/L | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | 39-25-5 | 60.9% | +21.6% | +$13.83 | 69 |
| Moneyline | 28-24-1 | 53.8% | +6.4% | +$3.34 | 53 |
| Parlay | 7-25-0 | 21.9% | -18.5% | -$5.92 | 32 |
| Player Prop | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | -53.0% | -$2.12 | 4 |
| Over/Under | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | -29.0% | -$0.87 | 3 |
Does a higher confidence rating actually win more often?
| Confidence | W-L-P | Win% | ROI | P/L | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2/5 Low | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% | -$1.00 | 1 |
| 3/5 Medium | 51-53-2 | 49.0% | +3.4% | +$3.50 | 106 |
| 4/5 High | 25-24-4 | 51.0% | +13.8% | +$6.76 | 53 |
| 5/5 Max | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% | -$1.00 | 1 |
| Model | W-L-P | Win% | ROI | P/L | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opus 5.5 | 40-42-4 | 48.8% | -3.2% | -$2.63 | 86 |
| Opus 4.6 | 22-26-1 | 45.8% | +16.6% | +$7.99 | 49 |
| Sonnet 5 | 7-5-1 | 58.3% | +17.3% | +$2.08 | 13 |
| Opus 5 | 5-6-0 | 45.5% | -8.5% | -$0.94 | 11 |
| Fable 5.1 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | +88.0% | +$1.76 | 2 |
| Risk band | W-L-P | Win% | ROI | P/L | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Core | 60-42-6 | 58.8% | +10.2% | +$10.36 | 108 |
| Value | 7-5-0 | 58.3% | +53.5% | +$6.42 | 12 |
| Swing | 9-32-0 | 22.0% | -20.8% | -$8.52 | 41 |
| Tier | W-L-P | Win% | ROI | P/L | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB Pitcher Mismatch | 20-13-1 | 60.6% | +12.2% | +$4.02 | 34 |
| CFB Home Dog | 12-8-1 | 60.0% | +15.1% | +$3.02 | 21 |
| Swing Parlay | 2-12-0 | 14.3% | -62.5% | -$8.75 | 14 |
| NBA Back-to-Back Fade | 8-3-0 | 72.7% | +40.1% | +$4.41 | 11 |
| NFL Key Number | 5-5-1 | 50.0% | -6.5% | -$0.65 | 11 |
| Correlated SGP | 4-6-0 | 40.0% | +72.2% | +$7.22 | 10 |
| Value Underdog | 4-5-0 | 44.4% | -16.9% | -$1.52 | 9 |
| NFL Home Dog | 4-3-1 | 57.1% | +10.6% | +$0.74 | 8 |
| Multi-Game Parlay | 1-7-0 | 12.5% | -54.9% | -$4.39 | 8 |
| Other | 3-4-0 | 42.9% | -0.1% | -$0.01 | 7 |
| Value Spread | 2-4-0 | 33.3% | -36.0% | -$2.16 | 6 |
| CFB Key Number | 2-1-2 | 66.7% | +25.3% | +$0.76 | 5 |
| Golf Course Fit | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | +80.3% | +$2.41 | 3 |
| Longshot Value | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | +5.0% | +$0.15 | 3 |
| NHL Goalie Mismatch | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | +167.5% | +$3.35 | 2 |
| MLB Run Line | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | +157.0% | +$3.14 | 2 |
| Prop: TD Scorer | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% | -$2.00 | 2 |
| Prop: Matchup | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | +88.0% | +$0.88 | 1 |
| MLB Bullpen Edge | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | +64.0% | +$0.64 | 1 |
| Forced Filler | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% | -$1.00 | 1 |
| Value Total | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% | -$1.00 | 1 |
| Yolo Send | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% | -$1.00 | 1 |
| Month | W-L-P | Win% | ROI | P/L | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2026 | 10-9-0 | 52.6% | +57.2% | +$10.87 | 19 |
| Apr 2026 | 12-17-1 | 41.4% | -9.9% | -$2.88 | 30 |
| Sep 2026 | 24-17-1 | 58.5% | +14.8% | +$6.08 | 42 |
| Oct 2026 | 28-35-4 | 44.4% | -9.4% | -$5.94 | 67 |
| Nov 2026 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | +4.3% | +$0.13 | 3 |
32 parlays
DraftKings profit boosts
By the odds taken
155 decided tickets
1 tickets with a closing line