Cubs @ Padres

The read

• Pivetta at home with a 1-0 series lead and a chance to slam the door — we ride the better arm in Petco.
• Pivetta 2.86 ERA / 1.01 WHIP vs Gausman 4.51 / 1.27: a 1.65-run ERA gap and 0.26 WHIP gap, and -137 only implies 57.8%.
• Pivetta's DRA (4.20) says he's been lucky and he's only a handful of starts off an elbow layoff, while Gausman's peripherals beat his ERA, so the gap is thinner than it looks — October haircut applied.