Eagles @ Bears

NFLSep 28 · 8:15 PM ETWIN

Bears +3.5

Wager

$1.00

Paid

$1.93

Line

-108

Confidence

3/5

P/L

+$0.93

Model

Opus 5.5

Tier

NFL Home Dog

Risk

Core

The read

Home dog on Monday night getting the hook over 3. The market swung this from Bears -1.5 to +3.5 on the Caleb news, and that's a lot to pay for one guy.
Pricing Williams at about six points is steep, and Philly has its own injury list: Goedert, Hollywood Brown and RT Fred Johnson are all out. At a 41.5 total every point matters, and +3.5 covers any field-goal loss.
Case Keenum is 38 and hasn't played an NFL snap since 2023, so if the offense stalls early this can get away from Chicago. That's why it's a 3, not a 4.

Posted September 28, 2026pick_20260928_001