Bills @ Rams

The read

• This line opened Rams -2.5 and the hook moved through the 3, so now we get Buffalo on the right side of the biggest key number in football.
• Bills are 3-1 off their first loss as 6.5-point favorites to the Pats, the exact spot the market overreacts to, and they're 4-2 ATS in the last six meetings. The Rams are banged up too with Donald, Watson and Parkinson all limited.
• The risk is real: Buffalo's D sits 30th in EPA per play and DJ Moore's shoulder is a question mark, but a field goal loss still cashes and we'll take the half point on MNF.