Florida State Seminoles @ Louisville Cardinals

The read

• We get the hook on the most important number in football. SP+ and FPI both have Louisville as roughly a field-goal favorite, so +3.5 is buying the 3 for free
• All three Louisville losses this year came by exactly 3 points, and FSU brings a top-10 pass rush into a Cardinals line that ranks 81st in sacks allowed with starting tackle Cason Henry questionable
• The Noles are thin in the secondary with three DBs and two linebackers out against an offense with a nation-high eight 50-yard TDs, and they have not won a road game since 2023, so this is a lean, not a hammer