Marlins @ Padres

The read

• Sandy Alcantara takes the ball for Miami sitting on the better season by ERA (right around 3.8), and the Marlins are still going off as the road dog against Walker Buehler and his mid-4s ERA in San Diego.
• The gap isn't the full 1.5 ERA the mismatch tier wants, so this is priced as value, not a lock — but the better starter getting plus money is exactly the kind of spot worth a flat unit.
• Padres bats have the venue and lineup edge, and Buehler doesn't have to be great to beat a Marlins offense that isn't scaring anyone, so treat this as a lean, not a smash.