Henley @ RBC Heritage

The read

• Harbour Town is tailor-made for Henley — narrow fairways, small greens, no power premium — and he's gained strokes on approach in every one of his last five appearances here
• Came out of Augusta in peak form with a T3 and the field's best strokes gained approach — the form and the course fit are both pointing at him right now
• Golf is always variance, but +1700 on a precision player in peak form at his best course is legit expected value — the market already moved him from +2000 to +1700 before the first tee shot